There is a better way: TV networks don’t have to break hearts
The life of a media planner has few thrills. I know, because I used to be one.
But one thing I (ashamedly) looked forward to each year was the television network upfront presentations. It was a laugh to see the networks make every new pilot seem like a really big deal, when only about 10% ever enjoy a second season.
Despite the fact that people watch more TV than ever before, critics often blame declining ratings on lower programming standards and more importantly, fragmentation.
But I think there’s an under-explored issue here: that 10% hit rate. Technology and music reward early adoption, but television does not. Why should any viewer invest time and energy in a new program when it’s almost certain that it’ll be taken away before it can get serious? It’s like falling in love with someone who you know is destined to break your heart, right?
In a couple months, CBS will begin airing “Harper’s Island”. It sounds like a fairly typical murder mystery, but what’s interesting is that the entire series is just 13-episodes long, and the full story arc will run over a three-month stretch.
Advertising Age wonders if this is a new broadcast model, and I think they’re on to something. Like any other respectable form of entertainment (e.g., books, albums, sports seasons), this formula promises to deliver until its story concludes – not when a CFO decides to call it quits. Now we’ll just have to see if the show is, you know, any good.
Hey Jared,
I’d love to hear your take on what’s happening with software platform Boxee and their struggle with finding a working model for convenient online television.
http://bit.ly/19MscB
It’s a great question, Gitamba, and one that others have addressed more articulately than I can. But here’s my two cents.
For starters, I have to agree with the intelligent folks who speculate that Boxee is getting forced out by the cable providers whose profits they’re cutting into.
This reminds of the ensuing cellphone/carrier struggle for content rights (and profits). But I digress…
Anyway, I have to think that TV networks are enlightened enough to know that Boxee is a great thing for them, and are frustrated that the cable providers:
a) are blocking this opportunity, and
b) haven’t created the service themselves
The optimist in me thinks that Comcast would build a lot of goodwill (and ultimately profit) by purchasing Boxee and providing the service to their consumers. The fatalist in me expects that Boxee will be an unfortunate casualty, and will inspire providers to offer an expensive, watered down version of the service in the not-too-distant future.
BTW, nice posts on the Retrospective. I’m enjoying the tip to Theophilus London…
Good stuff Jared.
Check this out: http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200903/television
Also, re: your Boxee comment: The thing I still don’t understand is why. If they’re showing ads on those shows anyway (as they are through Hulu) what’s the use in not pushing it? Is it just that the CPMs are lower on web video than television?
Great article, Noah. The Atlantic author references the return to advertiser owned nights — not far off from the current BBC model being discussed on your blog right now.
As for Boxee vs. cable providers — and again I’m making assumptions here — I believe the providers are looking forward. If viewers shift away from TV and towards a third-party online service like Boxee, then the cable providers won’t be able to charge networks as great a fee for distribution. In other words, I speculate they’re using their current leverage to avoid having less of it later on.